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The airport has been generating more fee income that is earmarked for buying back debt. “I think the government has the desire and ability to do the transaction, so I think there’s more upside in the bonds,” Gifford said. A guarantee could be riskier for the government, since it could lead to holdouts, while an early repurchase would be more promising, he said. The comment has made investors hopeful that Mexico will start to buy back some of the $4.2 billion total of bonds tied to the project, or offer a full guarantee to replace the payments based on passenger fees, said Aaron Gifford, an emerging-market sovereign debt analyst at T. The bonds have jumped further over the past month, after AMLO said he wants the navy to take over operation of the airport. The spread on the bonds due 2047 relative to comparable dollar-denominated Mexican government debt has narrowed to its lowest since issuance. That makes them the best-performing Mexican corporate notes over that period, accounting for both price changes and interest payments. Those fees have been rising as international air travel rebounds, helping the so-called Mexcat 30-year bonds surge by around 50% since late September.
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